[UA] Re: Mathematics of focus shifts

[Donald]

>From: Nikodemus Siivola <nikodemus at random-state.net>
>Subject: Re: [UA] Re: Mathematics of focus shifts
>To: Donald <dbachman at ionet.net>,	The Unknown Armies RPG Mailing List
>	<ua at lists.unknown-armies.com>
>Message-ID: <45ADC5F8.4050608 at random-state.net>
>Content-Type: text/plain; charset=UTF-8; format=flowed
>
>
> > With a 10% focus shift my average damage to him
>> leaps to 4.65 damage per shot and his average damage to me leaps to
>> 2.1 damage per shot. Yes, I end up taking more damage but I also end
>> up dealing more damage--in this case I gain more damage than he does.
>
>Proportionally his gain is larger: your average damage has multiplied by
>~ 2.17, while his has gone up by a factor of 3.82. (Which is how I 
>explain my simulation results to myself, but I'm not 100% sure this is
>the correct explanation.)
>

Proportion doesn't matter, the guy with the lesser skill remains behind.
The real savings here is time--time for the guy with the lesser skill to 
respond, to get lucky, to come up with some way of shifting things to 
his favor.

>> My gut reaction is that the person with superior skill ends up being
>> much nastier for focus shifting than any gain his opponent sees.
>
>That was what I expected before I did the simulations, but seems not to 
>be the case.
>

Its what I find looking at a spreadsheet of results covering all combination
of skill values. The person with greater skill comes out ahead until such 
point that his focus shift allows his opponent to gain sufficiently to equal
him because the shift does the person with the greater skill no good but
brings the opponent up to equivalency (i.e. someone with 90% skill taking
a 20% shift against an opponent with 80% skill).